Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Macro Strategist
Summary: Just five weeks to go to the US election. This week we focus on what could be in store for Tesla post-election after Elon Musk has turned increasingly political and pro-Trump.
While Harris continues to enjoy about a 3% advantage in the national polls, the extremely close polling margins in the seven key swing states mean that her odds of winning are stuck around 50-50, according to betting markets. The VP presidential debate this week will likely not sustain any shift in the odds in the runup to the election.
As I have noted before, I suspect the margin of victory will come down to voter turnout. For Harris to win, that will especially mean turning out young voters that have never voted before. For Trump, it will be about motivating those that continue to blame the top two concerns of voters: inflation/the economy and immigration, on the Democrats, fairly or not.
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