Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Eurozone Final Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI (0900), Eurozone Dec. PPI (1000), US Jan. ADP Employment Change (1315), US Dec. Trade Balance (1330), Canada Dec. International Merchandise Trade (1330), ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak (1400), US Jan. ISM Services (1500), US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories (1530), US Fed Voter Goolsbee to speak (1930), US Fed voter Bowman to speak (2000),
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
The VIX fell 7.57% to 17.21, as broader markets rallied, though VIX futures rose 2.61% to 17.65, signaling uncertainty ahead of key earnings and economic reports. The drop in implied volatility reflects easing near-term fears, though short-term indicators suggest caution. Nasdaq futures fell 0.6% overnight following Alphabet’s disappointing results. Market focus today is on the ADP Nonfarm Employment report and ISM services data, which could impact sentiment. Options markets remained active, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir leading in volume as traders positioned around earnings and macro risks.
Bitcoin (+0.34%) hovered just below $100K, trading at $98,186, while Ethereum rose 1.49% to $2,774. XRP (+0.06%) and Solana (+0.52%) saw marginal gains. Crypto stocks showed mixed performance, with RIOT (+2.5%) and CLSK (+2.36%) rising, while COIN (-1.41%) and MARA (-1.67%) declined. Market sentiment was muted as President Trump’s administration discussed the potential inclusion of Bitcoin in a newly proposed US sovereign wealth fund, sparking speculation over institutional adoption. Meanwhile, China's new tariffs added uncertainty to risk assets, including digital currencies. Traders remain focused on regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)