Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Key Stories from the past week: All the market action stems from the Oval Office
Saxo
Trade wars, crypto reserves, and a boost in European spending – all externalities from a busy week in the Oval Office. Nasdaq futures were Saxo’s most traded product of the week as US tech exceptionalism fades pushing the Nasdaq index down -6% ytd. The Hang Seng on the other hand is +21% ytd supported by rotation into Chinese tech and strong GDP growth targets. The ECB’s 25bps rate cut was a side show to the shift in European fiscal spending. Crude touched a multi-year low, and crypto investors were disappointed with the details of the US Bitcoin reserve. More below on this week’s key stories.
Germany’s Fiscal U-Turn
The Euro soared this week and 10yr Bund yields rocketed 40bps to above 2.80% as Germany loosened their fiscal chains. This is a major shift in European economic policy that is already driving support for EU equities.
Make Europe Great Again
Oval Office Spat Gives EU Defence Another Leg Up
Trump has forced Europe to step up their defence spending and policy makers have answered. Following last weekend’s commitment of support, EU Defence names skyrocketed on Monday which may see the start of a structural bull cycle.
European Defence Stocks
Chinese AI Fuels Rotation
Alibaba ADR shares rose 7.5% on Wednesday after the company unveiled a new AI model that matches DeepSeek’s performance with less data. The announcement added to sentiment for a positive rotation into Chinese tech, at the expense of US counterparts. Tech heavy Nasdaq is down 6% ytd.
Alibaba's new AI model
Tariffs-on / Tariffs-off
Trump’s already delayed tariffs turned-on on Tuesday, however, come Thursday he signed an order pausing tariffs on USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2nd. The to-and-fro is unpredictable, as is the economic impact for markets. Volatility is the result with VIX up near 25.
Tariff fatigue causes market unpredictability
This weekend we celebrate International Women’s Day, read A woman's guide to smart investing here. European investors should take note of US trading hours next week as Sunday sees the US and Canada turn their clocks forward an hour. Tariff schedules are peppered throughout the week. There is inflation data from China (Sun), US (Wed), and multiple EU states (Fri). Wednesday also has a rate decision from Bank of Canada. And Friday is yet another deadline for law makers to strike a spending deal to avoid a US federal govt shutdown.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)