Saxo survey reveals investor sentiment aligns with general market uncertainty
The beginning of 2024 has been characterised by changing market expectations. Initially, the sentiment overall was largely pessimistic, as market players anticipated rate cuts. Since then, it has shifted unexpectedly towards becoming more optimistic, with many stock markets at or near all-time highs.
"Investors, including Saxo clients, came positively into 2024 after a strong 2023 in which a recession was avoided and great returns were delivered in equities. This position has been rewarded so far in 2024 despite unusual volatility in expectations around central bank policy rates and inflation," Garnry added.
U.S. expected to outperform, while Europe may lag behind
The panel of clients had a divided sentiment towards the major U.S. S&P 500 index, with just over half of the respondents expecting an increase, while nearly thirty percent anticipate a decrease.Central bank policies to play crucial role
Investors cite central bank policies as a key factor that will influence the financial markets this quarter. The survey highlighted that geopolitical tensions, the upcoming U.S. election, and ongoing recession concerns are also significant factors that could impact investment strategies.
"With interest rate cuts continue to be postponed, geopolitical tensions still high, and the US election gets closer, there is a lot of room for increased volatility in financial markets that merits that clients review whether their portfolios are set up for a turbulent quarter and beyond, " says Garnry.
Explore the full results of the sentiment survey below:
How do you think the American S&P 500 index will perform in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Big decrease | 2.2% |
| Decrease | 24.5% |
| No movement | 15.2% |
| Increase | 50.5% |
| Big increase | 1.1% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
What do you think will have the most impact on the performance of the S&P 500 index in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Macroeconomic indicators | 38.0% |
| Corporate earnings | 22.8% |
| Political climate | 10.9% |
| Geopolitics | 15.8% |
| Other (please specify) | 11.4% |
| None of the above | 1.1% |
Which global sector do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Energy | 17.4% |
| Materials | 10.3% |
| Industrials | 2.2% |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.1% |
| Consumer staples | 2.7% |
| Health care | 6.0% |
| Financials | 9.2% |
| Information technology | 33.7% |
| Communication services | 1.1% |
| Utilities | 1.1% |
| Real estate | 3.3% |
| Other (please specify): | 5.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
Which region do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 48.9% |
| Europe | 9.2% |
| Asia-Pacific | 22.3% |
| Emerging markets | 14.1% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| None of the above/I don’t know | 3.3% |
Which region do you think will perform the worst in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 12.0% |
| Europe | 40.8% |
| Asia-Pacific | 17.9% |
| Emerging markets | 18.5% |
| Other (please specify): | 0.5% |
| I don’t know | 10.3% |
Below we list some macro-economic events that may affect financial markets in the coming quarter. Which ones (if any) do you think will affect your investment strategy in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| US election | 30.4% |
| Central bank policy | 58.7% |
| Recession scares | 23.4% |
| Geopolitical tensions | 44.6% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| I don’t know | 2.7% |
About the survey:
The purpose of the Client Sentiment Survey was to gain insights into the expectations of Saxo’s clients for the upcoming quarter.
At Saxo we believe that when you invest, you unlock a new curiosity for the world around you. As a provider of multi-asset trading and investment solutions, Saxo’s purpose is to Get Curious People Invested in the World. We are committed to enabling our clients to make more of their money. Saxo was founded in Copenhagen, Denmark in 1992 with a clear vision: to make the global financial markets accessible for more people. In 1998, Saxo launched one of the first online trading platforms in Europe, providing professional-grade tools and easy access to global financial markets for anyone who wanted to invest.
Today, Saxo is an international award-winning investment firm for investors and traders who are serious about making more of their money. As a well-capitalised and profitable Fintech, Saxo is a fully licensed bank under the supervision of the Danish FSA, holding broker and banking licenses in multiple jurisdictions. As one of the earliest fintechs in the world, Saxo continues to invest heavily into our technology. Saxo’s clients and partners enjoy broad access to global capital markets across asset classes on our industry-leading platforms. Our open banking technology also powers more than 200 financial institutions as partners by boosting the investment experience they can offer their clients. Keeping our headquarters in Copenhagen, Saxo has more than 2,500 professionals in financial centres around the world including London, Singapore, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Zurich, Dubai and Tokyo.
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