Saxo survey reveals investor sentiment aligns with general market uncertainty
The beginning of 2024 has been characterised by changing market expectations. Initially, the sentiment overall was largely pessimistic, as market players anticipated rate cuts. Since then, it has shifted unexpectedly towards becoming more optimistic, with many stock markets at or near all-time highs.
"Investors, including Saxo clients, came positively into 2024 after a strong 2023 in which a recession was avoided and great returns were delivered in equities. This position has been rewarded so far in 2024 despite unusual volatility in expectations around central bank policy rates and inflation," Garnry added.
U.S. expected to outperform, while Europe may lag behind
The panel of clients had a divided sentiment towards the major U.S. S&P 500 index, with just over half of the respondents expecting an increase, while nearly thirty percent anticipate a decrease.Central bank policies to play crucial role
Investors cite central bank policies as a key factor that will influence the financial markets this quarter. The survey highlighted that geopolitical tensions, the upcoming U.S. election, and ongoing recession concerns are also significant factors that could impact investment strategies.
"With interest rate cuts continue to be postponed, geopolitical tensions still high, and the US election gets closer, there is a lot of room for increased volatility in financial markets that merits that clients review whether their portfolios are set up for a turbulent quarter and beyond, " says Garnry.
Explore the full results of the sentiment survey below:
How do you think the American S&P 500 index will perform in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Big decrease | 2.2% |
| Decrease | 24.5% |
| No movement | 15.2% |
| Increase | 50.5% |
| Big increase | 1.1% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
What do you think will have the most impact on the performance of the S&P 500 index in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Macroeconomic indicators | 38.0% |
| Corporate earnings | 22.8% |
| Political climate | 10.9% |
| Geopolitics | 15.8% |
| Other (please specify) | 11.4% |
| None of the above | 1.1% |
Which global sector do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Energy | 17.4% |
| Materials | 10.3% |
| Industrials | 2.2% |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.1% |
| Consumer staples | 2.7% |
| Health care | 6.0% |
| Financials | 9.2% |
| Information technology | 33.7% |
| Communication services | 1.1% |
| Utilities | 1.1% |
| Real estate | 3.3% |
| Other (please specify): | 5.4% |
| I don’t know | 6.5% |
Which region do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 48.9% |
| Europe | 9.2% |
| Asia-Pacific | 22.3% |
| Emerging markets | 14.1% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| None of the above/I don’t know | 3.3% |
Which region do you think will perform the worst in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| North America | 12.0% |
| Europe | 40.8% |
| Asia-Pacific | 17.9% |
| Emerging markets | 18.5% |
| Other (please specify): | 0.5% |
| I don’t know | 10.3% |
Below we list some macro-economic events that may affect financial markets in the coming quarter. Which ones (if any) do you think will affect your investment strategy in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| US election | 30.4% |
| Central bank policy | 58.7% |
| Recession scares | 23.4% |
| Geopolitical tensions | 44.6% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.2% |
| I don’t know | 2.7% |
About the survey:
The purpose of the Client Sentiment Survey was to gain insights into the expectations of Saxo’s clients for the upcoming quarter.
Saxo Bank connects people to investment opportunities in global capital markets. As a provider of multi-asset trading and investment, Saxo Bank strives to empower people with a user-friendly, seamless and personalised platform experience that gives them exactly what they need, when they need it, no matter if they want to actively trade global markets or invest into their future.
Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank was one of the first financial institutions to develop an online trading platform that provided private investors with the same tools and market access as professional traders, large institutions and fund managers. Saxo combines an agile fintech mindset with close to 30 years of experience and track record in global capital markets to deliver a state-of-the-art experience to clients. The Saxo Bank Group holds four banking licenses and is well regulated globally. Saxo offers clients around the world broad access to global capital markets across asset classes, where they can trade more than 40,000 instruments in over 20 languages from one single margin account. The Saxo Bank Group also powers more than 135 financial institutions as partners by boosting the investment experience they can offer their clients via its open banking technology.
Headquartered in Copenhagen, Saxo Bank’s client assets total more than 45 billion Euros and the company has more than 2,000 financial and technology professionals in financial centers around the world including London, Singapore, Amsterdam, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Paris, Zurich, Dubai and Tokyo.