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Latest news and analysis on the US election

At Saxo, we are always fascinated by how politics may affect the global financial markets, so we created this election hub for exclusive content about this year’s US presidential election.

As we get closer to this historic election day, we will continue to add podcasts, articles, and videos here. So, be sure to bookmark this page to get continued access to special insights and commentary on what will surely be an unprecedented political event—and how it could potentially affect your investing and trading decisions.

01 /

  • US Election Countdown: A very divided America

    US Election 2024

    US Election Countdown: A very divided America

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    With seven weeks to go, the election outcome is as uncertain as ever. This week, markets have both e...
    Read full article
  • US Election: The three possible scenarios and their impact on markets

    US Election 2024

    US Election: The three possible scenarios and their impact on markets

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • US Election countdown: with 8 weeks to go, an ugly market mood as the big debate looms.

    US Election 2024

    US Election countdown: with 8 weeks to go, an ugly market mood as the big debate looms.

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    The hotly anticipated presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday is the best chance fo...
    Read full article
  • The weekly US election countdown: 9 weeks to go

    US Election 2024

    The weekly US election countdown: 9 weeks to go

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    Polls and betting odds are shifting back slightly in Trump’s favour. This week, we focus on what the...
    Read full article
  • The weekly US election countdown: 10 weeks to go

    Macro

    The weekly US election countdown: 10 weeks to go

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    This is the second edition of our weekly guide to navigating the US election. This week: Nvidia earn...
    Read full article
  • The weekly US election countdown: 11 weeks to go

    Macro

    The weekly US election countdown: 11 weeks to go

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    This is the first edition of our weekly countdown to the US election for investors, diving into the ...
    Read full article
  • Podcast: Summer events and US election’s impact on financial markets

    US Election 2024

    Podcast: Summer events and US election’s impact on financial markets

    Saxo Group

    Listen to Saxo Market Call on summer events and the US election’s impact on markets, including key r...
    Read full article
  • What the two most likely scenarios mean for your portfolio

    US Election 2024

    What the two most likely scenarios mean for your portfolio

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Biden is out, but what will be the difference?

    US Election 2024

    Biden is out, but what will be the difference?

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Understanding the "Trump Trade"

    Macro

    Understanding the "Trump Trade"

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article

US election investment primer

Different sectors can see a positive impact depending on whether a Republican or Democratic candidate wins the upcoming US presidential election.

Sectors benefitting from a Democratic presidency:
  • Clean energy
  • Infrastructure
  • Financials and semiconductors
Sectors benefitting from a Republican presidency:
  • European defence
  • US real estate
  • US small caps
Asset classes can be impacted by the news leading up to, and the results of, the US election. Below are key aspects to be aware of when trading different asset classes during a US election.

Forex (FX)
US elections could sway forex markets, with potential shifts in trade policies influencing currency strengths broadly across regions. 

Commodities
Anticipate changes in the bonds market, as election outcomes may alter inflation expectations and fiscal policies, impacting yields and term premiums. 

Bonds
Election results might reshape commodity markets, with trade policies and geopolitical shifts possibly affecting global supply and demand dynamics. 

As with all major political or macroeconomic events, it is important to manage your investment risk in the lead up to the US election. By adjusting your portfolio, you can mitigate potential risks arising from the election results. Here are four considerations on how to manage your investments as the political landscape evolves:

  • Consider how your portfolio is positioned relative to sectors and regions that may be affected by either party’s victory.
  • Review how commodities may be influenced by policies and adjust if necessary.
  • Think about currencies, especially those sensitive to US policy changes, and consider whether your exposure is aligned with the expected political outcome from whomever you believe will win.
  • In case of doubt, consider diversifying your portfolio—for example, using ETFs that focus on sectors that are more or less likely to be impacted by the election outcomes, depending on your desired positioning.
The collections of articles on this page explore the connection between US elections and the movements of the stock market, providing key insights into how the outcomes of presidential elections in the United States can affect financial markets. It explains the important role political changes play in shaping investment approaches and market trends.

By highlighting the mutual impact of government policies and economic results, the content is crafted to help investors grasp essential ideas that link stock market variations to US election cycles. These articles prepare investors to anticipate and respond to the possible effects of election outcomes on market stability and the success of their investments.

Our aim is to do more than just observe—we want to equip investors with the knowledge they need to navigate the financial markets during election periods. Understanding how investment strategies and US election results can be intertwined is crucial for anyone wanting to make well-informed decisions in a constantly changing economic environment.

More about US elections and the markets

01 /

  • 2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    US Election

    2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    A US president needs both houses of the Congress on his or her side to exercise real power outside o...
    Read full article
  • Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide

    US Election

    Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Investors should note that the US presidential election and Congressional elections on Tuesday, Nove...
    Read full article
  • Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    US Election

    Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    Saxo

    This year’s US presidential election could market a dramatic shift in US policy, especially if the P...
    Read full article
  • How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    US Election

    How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    Saxo

    This piece explains the archaic US Electoral College system and how the winner of the US Presidentia...
    Read full article
  • How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    US Election

    How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    US Election

    Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    US Election

    The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    Saxo

    Read full article
  • How the US election may impact your portfolio

    US Election

    How the US election may impact your portfolio

    Saxo

    Read full article
  • Anthony Scaramucci: Harris' well-run machine has upper hand on Trump's "testosterone-laden campaign"

    US Election

    Anthony Scaramucci: Harris' well-run machine has upper hand on Trump's "testosterone-laden campaign"

    Saxo Group

    Read full article

Frequently asked questions

US elections can influence financial markets as different administrations propose varying policies on taxation, regulation, and government spending. Market reactions often reflect investor sentiment about how these policies will impact economic growth, corporate profits, and interest rates. For example, the US election's impact on the stock market can be seen in how sectors respond differently to potential political changes. 
Historically, markets have performed well under both Democratic and Republican administrations. However, market reactions often depend on the specific policies of the candidates rather than the party itself.  
Election uncertainty can increase market volatility as investors react to changing polls, debates, and potential outcomes. This uncertainty can lead to short-term swings in asset prices as markets try to anticipate future economic and fiscal policies. The impact of the presidential election on the stock market often reflects this volatility, with fluctuations observed around key political events. 
Investors might consider diversifying their portfolios, focusing on long-term goals, and avoiding panic-selling during volatile periods. Some may also explore sectors or assets that are less sensitive to political changes.  

If investors want to find opportunities relating to the election outcome, a strategy would be to look at sectors whose performances are more directly tied to the agendas of each candidate and let that guide decisions on what stocks to buy if Trump wins or stocks to buy if Harris wins. 
The stock market’s performance during presidential election years has varied. However, in many cases, markets have shown resilience and tended to recover from election-related volatility, especially as the political landscape becomes clearer. A review of stock market performance by president reveals that market reactions often align with the economic policies implemented during their terms. However, there are also many other things impacting stock markets, such as big crashes, which can’t necessarily be attributed to an incumbent president. 
Election outcomes can shape US economic policy in areas such as taxation, government spending, trade, and regulation. These policies can have broad implications for economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The impact of the US election on the global economy is also significant, as changes in US policy can affect international trade and economic relationships. 
Investors often monitor indicators like consumer and business confidence, job numbers like the nonfarm payrolls, and market volatility markers (e.g., VIX) during election years. These indicators can provide insights into how markets might react to the political environment. Observing these key economic indicators may predict how the election affects the stock market. 
Global markets can react to US elections due to the significant role the US economy plays in the global financial system. Changes in US policy can affect trade, foreign relations, and global economic growth, leading to international market fluctuations. The impact of the US election on the global economy is closely watched by investors worldwide. 
Yes, election results can impact the US dollar. A new administration’s policies on trade, fiscal stimulus, and interest rates can influence the strength of the dollar. Markets may also respond to changes in political risk or economic outlook. For instance, the stock market if Trump wins or stocks market if Harris wins could lead to specific movements in the dollar based on their trade and fiscal policies. 
While it might be tempting to make drastic changes based on election outcomes, it’s generally advisable to maintain a long-term investment strategy. Investors should focus on diversification and align their portfolios with their risk tolerance and financial goals, rather than reacting to political events. However, considering stocks to buy if Trump wins or stocks to buy if Harris wins could be part of a strategy for those anticipating specific policy benefits. 

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