Saxo launches its flagship 2025 ‘Outrageous Predictions’ report, peering down the barrel into Trump 2.0

SINGAPORE, 4 December 2024 - Saxo, the leader in online trading and investment, announced its annual Outrageous Predictions for 2025 today.

Our annual Outrageous Predictions is a series of events that, while highly unlikely, could just happen. If they did, they would send shockwaves across financial markets. They are not our official forecast but are meant to spark discussions and challenge consensus.

“The Saxo Outrageous Predictions are not exactly news and not exactly real—at least not yet. While we don’t know which stories will drive the global economy in the coming year, our 2025 predictions, from Nvidia trouncing its Mag 7 peers to the fall of OPEC, from a bold bet on reflation in China to a great leap forward in biotech, are just as promised: outrageous,” says Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy.

Saxo's 2025 Outrageous Predictions:

1. Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar
   
   In 2025, the new Trump administration overhauls the entire nature of the US relationship with the world, slapping massive tariffs on all imports, while slashing deficits with the help of an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). “The implications for the US dollar are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the US dollar. Instead, safety valves are found, as global financial actors scramble for alternatives.”
   
   Potential market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold. The US economy continues to reflate, but wages keep up with goods inflation, as production resources reshore to the US, giving US exporters an advantage.
   
   
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
   
   In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged further with the availability in volume of its revolutionary 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip, a chip that drives up to a 25-fold increase in performance of AI calculations per unit of energy consumed relative to the prior H100 generation. “With the intensifying AI arms race as no giant or even government wants to be left behind, and as AI data centre electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time.”
   
   Potential market impact: Nvidia shares trade well north of USD 250, before the market begins to question its potential to grab an ever-greater share of corporate profits, and as unwelcome regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook. 
   
   
3. China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate economy
   
   In 2025, China makes a bold bet that reflation is the only answer and thinks it can manage the inflationary risks as it unleashes a gargantuan set of fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about USD 7 trillion) in 2025 and the following years. “Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt. China also adds heavy doses of social engineering in its stimulus, incentivising companies to reduce working hours to improve quality of life. This boosts leisure time, consumption, company formation, family formation and childbearing.”
   
   Potential market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of EM relative to DM and China in particular, higher commodity prices globally, a stronger Chinese renminbi.
   
   
4. First bio-printed human heart ushers in new era of longevity
   
   In an unprecedented scientific breakthrough, 2025 sees researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart, using advanced 3D bioprinting technology. “Starting with high-resolution CT scans, scientists create an intricate digital model capturing every minute detail of the heart's complex structure. This model serves as the blueprint for a state-of-the-art 3D bioprinter, which meticulously layers human stem cells and biodegradable scaffold materials to construct the organ with remarkable precision.” 
   
   Potential Market Impact: The success in bio-printed organs sees growth expectations jump for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase, but watch for a rash of IPOs in the space. More generally, this surge in innovation and investment could reshape the healthcare industry, leading to improved patient outcomes and significant economic growth.
   
   
5. Electrification boom ends OPEC
   
   In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as gasoline or diesel in cars and trucks, OPEC finds its relevance shrinking further and its multi-million barrel per day production limits irrelevant. “With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amidst the bickering and in-fighting, key members leave. This consigns OPEC to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
   
   Potential market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for airlines, chemical, paint and tire manufacturers and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly and oil prices stabilise, as higher cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production. Japanese carmakers find themselves in a desperate race to catch up with other EV players.
   
   
6. US imposes AI data centre tax as power prices run wild
   
   In 2025, US power prices spike higher in several populated US areas, as the largest tech companies scramble to lock in baseload electricity supplies for their precious AI data centres. “This inspires popular outrage, as households see their utility bills skyrocket, aggravated by the huge spikes in power prices for electricity consumed at home during peak load periods in the evening. In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households.”
   
   Potential market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Companies like Fluor rise on signing massive new construction deals. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double, a significant contributor to a more inflationary outlook.
   
   
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time
   
   In 2025, a catastrophic storm and rainfall event in the US catches the insurance industry unprepared, inflicting damage stretching into many multiples of the USD 40 billion in claims linked to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. “One of the largest US insurers significantly underestimated the insurance risks from climate change, leading to underpriced policies in the affected region. With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion.”
   
   Potential market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and the company gains market share.
   
   
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts versus the Euro
   
   In 2025, sterling rises through 1.27 versus the euro, the level it traded ahead of the Brexit referendum, thus erasing its entire post-Brexit vote discount.  “The UK outlook is as constructive as ever in the post-Brexit era. That is, it is the most positive relative to the sick man of Europe, which is, well…Europe, or at least the core Eurozone countries, France and Germany. Fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, where the new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while trimming the least productive public sector spending in moving to shrinking its deficits.”
   
   Possible market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook support sterling versus the flailing euro, seeing the Euro/Sterling rate fall as low as 0.7500, below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 posts a strong performance. 

For an in-depth look at Saxo Bank's 2025 Outrageous Predictions, please visit Saxo.