Saxo launches its flagship 2025 ‘Outrageous Predictions’ report, peering down the barrel into Trump 2.0

SYDNEY, 4 December 2024 – Saxo, a global leader in online multi-asset trading and investment, has today released its flagship "Outrageous Predictions for 2025".

While these predictions don’t represent Saxo’s official market forecasts, they serve as a reminder for investors to account for all possible outcomes, even those that appear unlikely. The Outrageous Predictions report aims to expand market participants' perspectives and prepare them for unexpected scenarios.

“These are a series of predictions that, while highly unlikely, could just happen. And if they did, they would send shockwaves across the financial markets. They are not official forecasts but rather suggestions to spark discussions and challenge consensus,” Saxo Chief Macro Strategist John Hardy said.

Saxo Bank's 2025 Outrageous Predictions:

• Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar
  
  In 2025, the new Trump administration overhauls the entire nature of the US’ relationship with the world, slapping massive tariffs on imports while slashing deficits with the help of an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). 
  
  “The implications for the USD are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the USD,” Mr Hardy said.
  
  Potential market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, and the USD falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold. The US economy continues to reflate, but wages keep up with goods inflation as production resources reshore to the US. US exporters are advantaged.
  
  
• Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
  
  In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged with its revolutionary Blackwell chip. 
  
  “As such, it surpasses Apple’s record USD 105 billion of profits next year, and with far faster growth baked into expectations, its market cap nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. Apple and the other tech giants’ valuations suffer in relative terms, as their profitability is weighed down by the need to build titanic data centres to keep up in the AI gold rush,” Mr Hardy said.
  
  Potential market impact: Nvidia shares trade at more than USD 250, before the market begins to question its potential to grab an ever-greater share of corporate profits and as unwelcome regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook.
  
  
• China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate economy
  
  In 2025, China makes a bold bet that reflation is the only answer and thinks it can manage the inflationary risks as it unleashes a gargantuan set of fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about USD 7 trillion) in 2025 and 2026. 
  
  “Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt,” Saxo Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana said. “China also adds heavy doses of social engineering in its stimulus, incentivising companies to reduce working hours to improve quality of life. This boosts leisure time, consumption, company formation, family formation and childbearing.”
  
  Potential market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of Emerging Markets relative to Developed Markets (and China in particular), higher commodity prices globally, and a stronger CNY. 
  
  
• First bio-printed human heart ushers in new era of longevity
  
  In an unprecedented scientific breakthrough, 2025 sees researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart, using advanced 3D bioprinting technology. 
  
  “Starting with high-resolution CT scans, scientists create an intricate digital model capturing every minute detail of the heart's complex structure. This model serves as the blueprint for a state-of-the-art 3D bioprinter, which meticulously layers human stem cells and biodegradable scaffold materials to construct the organ with remarkable precision,” Saxo Options Strategist Koen Hoorelbeke said.
  
  Potential Market Impact: The success in bio-printed organs sees growth expectations jump for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase, but watch for a rash of IPOs. More generally, this surge in innovation and investment could reshape the healthcare industry, leading to improved patient outcomes and significant economic growth.
  
  
• Electrification boom ends OPEC
  
  In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as gasoline or diesel in cars and trucks, OPEC finds its relevance shrinking further and its multi-million barrel per day production limits irrelevant. 
  
  “With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can, and with export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amid the bickering and in-fighting, key members leave, consigning OPEC to the ash heap of history,” Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Sloth Hansen said. “Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
  
  Potential market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for chemical, paint and tire manufacturers, airlines, and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly and oil prices stabilise as higher cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production. Japanese carmakers find themselves in a desperate race to catch up with other EV players.
  
  
• US imposes AI data centre tax as power prices run wild
  
  In 2025, US power prices spike higher in several populated US areas as the largest tech companies scramble to lock in baseload electricity supplies for their precious AI data centres. 
  
  “This inspires popular outrage, as households see their utility bills skyrocket, aggravated by the huge spikes in power prices for electricity consumed at home during peak load periods in the evening,” Mr Hansen said. “In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households.”
  
  Potential market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Companies like Fluor rise on signing massive new construction deals. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double, a significant contributor to a more inflationary outlook. 
  
  
• A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time
  
  In 2025, a catastrophic storm and rainfall event in the US catches the insurance industry unprepared.
  “With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion,” Mr Hardy said.
  
  Potential market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic, and the company gains market share.
  
  
• GBP erases post-Brexit discounts versus the EUR
  
  In 2025, GBP rises through 1.27 versus the EUR (the level it traded ahead of the Brexit referendum), thus erasing its entire post-Brexit vote discount. 
  
  “This would mean the UK outlook is more positive relative to the sick man of Europe - the core Eurozone countries of France and Germany,” Mr Hardy said. “Fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, where the new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while also trimming the least productive public sector spending to shrink its deficits.”
  
  Possible market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook supports GBP, seeing EUR/GBP fall as low as 0.7500 - below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 index posts a strong performance. 

The full Outrageous Predictions 2025 report can be found on the Saxo Website.