Key Stories from the past week: All the market action stems from the Oval Office

Key Stories from the past week: All the market action stems from the Oval Office

Macro
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Trade wars, crypto reserves, and a boost in European spending – all externalities from a busy week in the Oval Office. Nasdaq futures were Saxo’s most traded product of the week as US tech exceptionalism fades pushing the Nasdaq index down -6% ytd. The Hang Seng on the other hand is +21% ytd supported by rotation into Chinese tech and strong GDP growth targets. The ECB’s 25bps rate cut was a side show to the shift in European fiscal spending. Crude touched a multi-year low, and crypto investors were disappointed with the details of the US Bitcoin reserve. More below on this week’s key stories. 


Germany’s Fiscal U-Turn
The Euro soared this week and 10yr Bund yields rocketed 40bps to above 2.80% as Germany loosened their fiscal chains. This is a major shift in European economic policy that is already driving support for EU equities.
Make Europe Great Again

Oval Office Spat Gives EU Defence Another Leg Up
Trump has forced Europe to step up their defence spending and policy makers have answered. Following last weekend’s commitment of support, EU Defence names skyrocketed on Monday which may see the start of a structural bull cycle.
European Defence Stocks

Chinese AI Fuels Rotation
Alibaba ADR shares rose 7.5% on Wednesday after the company unveiled a new AI model that matches DeepSeek’s performance with less data. The announcement added to sentiment for a positive rotation into Chinese tech, at the expense of US counterparts. Tech heavy Nasdaq is down 6% ytd.
Alibaba's new AI model

Tariffs-on / Tariffs-off
Trump’s already delayed tariffs turned-on on Tuesday, however, come Thursday he signed an order pausing tariffs on USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2nd. The to-and-fro is unpredictable, as is the economic impact for markets. Volatility is the result with VIX up near 25.
Tariff fatigue causes market unpredictability


This weekend we celebrate International Women’s Day, read A woman's guide to smart investing here. European investors should take note of US trading hours next week as Sunday sees the US and Canada turn their clocks forward an hour. Tariff schedules are peppered throughout the week. There is inflation data from China (Sun), US (Wed), and multiple EU states (Fri). Wednesday also has a rate decision from Bank of Canada. And Friday is yet another deadline for law makers to strike a spending deal to avoid a US federal govt shutdown.

Quarterly Outlook

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    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

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