Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Saxo Group
Concentrating all your investments in one sector or asset class can expose your portfolio to significant risk. That’s because market assets often move together - especially similar assets, such as companies in the same sector.
Economic slowdowns, regulatory changes, or geopolitical events can all cause significant volatility, which can lead to losses. These losses will be magnified if your portfolio is over-concentrated on just a few investments, or if your investments exhibit a price correlation-
A diversified portfolio spreads investments across various asset classes, industries, and regions. This strategy helps reduce the impact of losses in any single area while allowing for growth in others, serving as a practical hedge against volatility.
A diversified portfolio is a collection of investments spread across various asset classes, sectors, and geographies. Its purpose is to minimise risk and improve portfolio stability. Instead of relying on a single investment to generate returns, diversification spreads exposure, ensuring that no single market event can significantly impact the overall portfolio. For this to work, it is important that the different assets are not overly correlated; that is, their prices do not tend to move together.
Diversification works by reducing unsystematic risk, which is specific to individual companies, industries, or sectors. For example, while a downturn in the technology sector might hurt tech stocks, other sectors like utilities or healthcare may remain unaffected, balancing the portfolio's performance.
Effective diversification depends on the correlation between assets. Combining investments with low or negative correlations reduces volatility and improves risk-adjusted returns. For example, equities and bonds often react differently to economic events, making them complementary in a diversified portfolio.
A diversified portfolio might include equities for growth, bonds for stability, and real assets like real estate or commodities as a hedge against inflation. Balancing these investments can align your portfolio performance with your broader financial goals.
Learning how to diversify your portfolio is an important step. Each portfolio is different, and multiple diversification strategies can be applied to balance risk and improve portfolio stability. Each approach plays a unique role in creating a resilient investment framework.
Spreading investments across different asset classes is one of the most effective ways to diversify. Stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities respond differently to market conditions. For instance, stocks often perform well in growth-oriented markets, while bonds provide stability during economic downturns.
Including alternative asset classes can add further diversity, though their high volatility makes them suitable for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Further diversification occurs within individual asset classes. In equities, this means investing in various industries such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods. A decline in one sector is often offset by growth in another. For bonds, diversification includes varying issuers (corporate vs. government) and maturities (short-, medium-, and long-term), which protects against credit risks and interest rate fluctuations.
Economic conditions vary across countries, making geographic diversification an essential part of any strategy. Holding a mix of domestic and international assets reduces reliance on a single economy. Developed markets offer stability, while emerging markets provide growth opportunities with higher volatility.
For example, combining US stocks with European and Asian investments ensures exposure to different growth cycles.
Allocating a mix of low-risk and high-risk investments strengthens a portfolio's resilience. Treasury bonds and blue-chip stocks offer stability, while growth stocks or high-yield bonds provide higher return potential. The balance between these investments should reflect the investor's financial goals and risk tolerance.
Bonds with varying maturity lengths play a critical role in diversification. Short-term bonds are less sensitive to interest rate changes but deliver lower returns. Long-term bonds, while more volatile, can offer higher yields. Combining both helps manage risks over different economic conditions.
Including both tangible and intangible investments provides an additional layer of diversification. Tangible assets like real estate, gold, and agricultural land offer intrinsic value and stability, while intangible assets such as equities and digital securities offer liquidity and scalability.
Building a diversified portfolio requires a clear plan that aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance. The following steps provide a structured approach to achieving that:
Effective diversification begins with understanding your financial objectives. Define whether you are investing for long-term growth, short-term income, or a combination of both. Your risk tolerance also plays a critical role, determining how much exposure you should have to high-risk assets like equities or alternative investments.
For example, a younger investor with a long investment horizon might focus on growth-oriented stocks, while a retiree may prioritise stable income from bonds and dividend-paying equities.
Asset allocation is the foundation of diversification. Spread your investments across multiple asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. A traditional 60/40 allocation (60% stocks, 40% bonds) can be a good starting point for balanced investors, though adjustments may be needed based on individual preferences.
For instance, risk-averse investors might increase their bond allocation, while those who are after higher returns could add exposure to alternative investments like REITs.
Adding variety within each asset class reduces the risks associated with over-concentration. In equities, this means investing in different sectors, industries, and geographic regions. For bonds, diversifying by issuer type (government vs. corporate) and maturity length provides better protection against interest rate changes or credit risks.
A well-rounded stock portfolio might include technology, healthcare, and consumer goods sectors, while a diversified bond portfolio could combine short-term government securities and long-term corporate bonds.
Economic conditions differ across countries, making geographic diversification an essential part of a robust strategy. Domestic investments often feel familiar but may expose portfolios to risks tied to a single economy. Adding international assets reduces this reliance and broadens growth opportunities.
For example, combining US equities with European and Asian markets allows investors to benefit from diverse growth cycles and reduce the impact of regional economic downturns.
Market performance can change asset allocations over time, leaving portfolios misaligned with their original goals. Periodic rebalancing ensures that your portfolio remains diversified and continues to reflect your desired risk profile.
For instance, a strong rally in equities might leave a portfolio overweight in stocks, increasing risk exposure. Rebalancing would involve trimming some equity positions and reallocating funds to underweighted assets like bonds or real estate.
Managing expenses is an often overlooked component of diversification. Transaction fees, fund management charges, and other costs can erode returns. Make sure that your portfolio includes a mix of liquid and long-term assets to maintain flexibility without sacrificing performance.
A well-diversified portfolio adapts to the investor's risk tolerance, financial goals, and time horizon. Below are examples of how investors can structure their portfolios based on varying levels of risk:
Conservative investors prioritise stability and capital preservation, often focusing on low-risk investments. This type of portfolio emphasises bonds and other fixed-income securities while limiting exposure to equities and alternatives.
Allocation example:
Such a portfolio provides steady income and minimises the impact of market volatility, making it suitable for retirees or conservative investors.
Balanced portfolios aim for a mix of growth and stability, appealing to investors with moderate risk tolerance. These portfolios evenly split investments between equities and fixed income while introducing other asset classes for diversification.
Allocation example:
Balanced portfolios offer growth potential while reducing downside risk, making them ideal for investors with long-term horizons.
Aggressive investors focus on maximising returns, accepting higher risk in exchange for greater growth potential. This portfolio emphasises equities and alternative investments while limiting bonds and cash allocations.
Allocation example:
This approach suits younger investors with extended time horizons and a tolerance for significant market changes.
A diversified portfolio reduces the risks associated with relying on a single asset, sector, or region since losses in one area are balanced by gains in others, promoting stability and consistent performance over time. This is not about avoiding risk entirely but managing it effectively to align with your own financial goals.
By following the steps presented in this guide, you can build a foundation that supports your long-term growth while safeguarding your investments against uncertain market conditions.