Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access all our platforms from a single account.
What to track as the US presidential election nears
US Election 2024
Saxo
With Super Tuesday behind us, it seems to be increasingly more clear that we will see a Trump vs. Biden rerun. And while we still haven’t seen the political programmes on which the two candidate will base their campaign, and thus don’t know how they will impact the economy specifically.
Still, there are some indices and ETFs that are relevant to track as we get increasingly closer to Election Day on 5 November. We have listed some of those here and below you find a short explanation of why these are relevant.
Indices:
- Nasdaq 100: The American tech-heavy index is the most sensitive to perceived economic changes from the US election.
- STOXX 50: The European top-index is worth paying attention to as especially with a shift in power to a Trump administration could mean lesser global support from the US, meaning increasing trade tariffs and e.g. a lack of defensive support on the European continent.
- Hang Seng: The Chinese index could be challenged if Trump takes power, as he could intensify the disputes between the US and China.
Thematic ETFs
If you want some inspiration that is slightly more specific than broader, regional indices, here’s a few topics to dive into depending on the political focus of the two candidates and the eventual winner.
- US small caps (Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF): Depending on the politics that either presidential candidate will present, it could be more or less business-friendly than the current regime. As small caps usually operate with smaller financial cushions, changes in the business-friendliness of politics in terms of e.g. taxes, tend to have a greater impact here than for large and mega cap companies.
- EU defence (Future of Defence UCITS ETF): While US presidential elections most often have been revolving around national policy making, it seems that there’s a chance that the US’ contribution to peace and stability across the globe may be a factor in 2024. As especially the Republican camp is questioning US’ foreign policy role (and even NATO membership) a seat change in the oval office may mean that Europe needs to ramp up its military ability to defend itself, which may mean good times for the European defence industry.
- US oil & gas majors (iShares S&P 500 Energy Sector UCITS ETF) and Clean energy stocks (iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF): Another battlefield in the election campaign may turn out to be within fuel and energy. Without knowing the details of either party, there is a tendency for the Republican party to favour traditional energy sources like oil and gas, whereas the Democratic party has a stronger focus on the green transition. So depending on the result, these two ETFs may be impacted.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...