Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist
As we step into the Year of the Snake, investors are keen to uncover what this enigmatic symbol means for the financial markets. Known for its ability to strike with precision and stay calm under pressure, the snake offers qualities that align perfectly with smart investing: patience, strategy, and an eye for opportunities.
The Chinese zodiac consists of a 12-year cycle, with each year associated with an animal sign. These signs are Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat, Monkey, Rooster, Dog, and Pig. Each sign is believed to influence the personality traits, fortunes, and life paths of people born under that sign.
The snake represents transformation, intelligence, and adaptability in Chinese culture. While some may associate snakes with risk, they are also symbols of elegance, resilience, and renewal. From an investment perspective, the Year of the Snake suggests a time for thoughtful, strategic moves rather than bold gambles.
The current market narrative is shaped by a mix of optimism and caution. Inflation is cooling, but interest rates remain elevated, keeping borrowing costs high and financial markets on edge. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, like the new Trump era and prospects of renewed trade tensions, add another layer of complexity.
In this environment, investors must think like a snake: stay alert, adapt to new conditions, and strike only when the opportunity is right.
For those who appreciate the intersection of culture and investing, historical market returns tied to Chinese zodiac years offer an intriguing lens. Since 1960, the S&P 500 has demonstrated varied performance across the zodiac cycle, revealing some fascinating patterns for investors.
The Year of the Snake, as the chart above shows, delivers an average return of around 8%. While not as strong as top-performing years like the Pig, Goat, or Rabbit, Snake years often represent periods of steady growth and transformation, emphasizing strategy over speed.
While history shows moderate returns, the Years of the Snake often offer opportunities for those who stay patient and adaptable:
This list is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risks, including the loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.