Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist, Europe
The latest earnings reports from Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta highlight a tech sector in flux—balancing AI-driven growth, competitive pressures, and shifting investor sentiment. While AI remains the unifying theme across all three companies, each is facing distinct challenges: Microsoft is struggling to scale its cloud business, Tesla is grappling with slowing vehicle demand, and Meta is pouring billions into AI despite regulatory and cost concerns.
Here’s what investors need to know.
Key Results:
Challenges & Outlook:
Microsoft’s AI momentum is undeniable, but its biggest issue is execution. Demand for its AI-powered Azure services is growing faster than it can build data centres, causing a bottleneck. CEO Satya Nadella reassured investors that Microsoft is working aggressively to expand cloud capacity, with USD 80 billion earmarked for AI infrastructure this fiscal year. However, competition is intensifying—Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has released an open-source AI model at a fraction of the cost of Western alternatives, forcing Microsoft to acknowledge potential pricing pressures.
Despite its long-term growth story, Microsoft shares fell nearly 5% in the post-market after earnings, as investors questioned whether the company could scale quickly enough to justify its massive AI investments.
Investor Takeaway: Microsoft remains a leader in AI, but near-term cloud capacity issues could weigh on growth. Investors should watch for accelerating AI revenue and improvements in cloud infrastructure buildout.
Key Results:
Challenges & Outlook:
Tesla is feeling the heat from rising EV competition, especially from lower-cost Chinese rivals. Price cuts helped maintain sales volume but eroded profitability. Yet, Elon Musk painted an ambitious future, promising an “epic” period of growth driven by AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots. Tesla plans to launch an autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin by mid-2025, followed by a rollout in other cities. Additionally, Musk confirmed that Tesla’s long-awaited affordable EV model remains on track for production in early 2025.
Despite the earnings miss, Tesla’s stock climbed 4% in after-hours trading, showing that investors are still willing to buy into Musk’s long-term vision.
Investor Takeaway: Tesla’s fundamentals are weakening, but Musk’s grand AI and self-driving promises continue to drive enthusiasm. Investors should watch whether autonomous driving tech progresses on schedule and whether Tesla’s new EV model can boost sales.
Key Results:
Challenges & Outlook:
CEO Mark Zuckerberg remains all-in on AI, predicting that Meta’s AI assistant will reach over 1 billion users in 2025. However, Meta’s biggest concern is its spending spree—with capital expenditures for 2025 set at USD 60-65 billion. Some analysts worry that Meta is burning too much cash on AI before fully monetizing it.
Zuckerberg assured investors that AI-powered ad targeting is already delivering value but admitted that other AI monetization efforts—such as subscriptions or sponsored AI responses—are still far from generating revenue.
Meta is also facing rising regulatory scrutiny in Europe over its ad-free subscription model, which could impact future revenue. Additionally, the company’s Reality Labs division, responsible for its metaverse ambitions, continues to burn cash without clear signs of profitability.
Meta’s stock initially dipped on weak guidance but later recovered by 4.5%, as investors focused on Zuckerberg’s AI vision and the company’s continued ad revenue strength.
Investor Takeaway: Meta is betting heavily on AI, but profitability concerns remain. Investors should watch for improvements in AI-driven revenue streams and cost control in 2025.
Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta are all leading the AI transformation, but they are at different stages of the journey—and their challenges reflect that.
For Microsoft, the biggest question is whether it can scale its cloud capacity quickly enough to meet soaring AI demand. The company is already spending billions to expand infrastructure, but any further delays in cloud capacity could continue to limit Azure’s growth and hurt investor confidence.
For Tesla, much depends on whether Musk can deliver on his self-driving ambitions. Autonomous vehicles and ride-hailing services could be game-changers, but delays or regulatory pushback could derail this vision. Additionally, competition in the EV market is heating up, and Tesla needs to find a way to sustain sales while maintaining profitability.
For Meta, the challenge is balancing high AI investments with actual revenue generation. AI-driven ad targeting has already boosted Meta’s business, but other AI projects—such as AI-powered assistants and AI-generated content—still need to prove they can deliver meaningful returns. Investors should watch whether Meta can control costs while still executing on its AI strategy.
The enthusiasm around AI is still driving tech stocks, but investors are now demanding proof of execution. Microsoft is betting on AI at an unprecedented scale, but its cloud infrastructure needs to keep up with demand. Tesla is leaning on future promises, with AI-driven self-driving technology being the key to its long-term success. Meta has the strongest near-term AI success, but its spending levels remain a major concern.
Ultimately, all three companies remain AI leaders, but they must now deliver tangible results to justify their valuations. Investors should stay optimistic about AI’s long-term potential but remain cautious about execution risks in the short term.