Quarterly Outlook
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Indicators are suggesting Gold could push to 2,400. Silver to 26, possibly higher
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold has resumed uptrend after taking out key resistance levels. The precious metal seems to be pausing gathering strength for next bullish move that is likely to push Gold higher. Indicators are suggesting levels of 2,300-2,400
Despite having established an uptrend Silver is lagging Gold. Strong resistance at 26 likely to be tested, however, but can it also break it?
Gold XAUUSD yesterday spiked to new all-time highs above previous peak at 2,134 only to close back below. A short-term corrective setback could be seen. Question is how much?
A correction down to the 0.382 retracement is not unlikely however, the trend is bullish both short- and medium-term supported by positive sentiment on the RSI i.e., a correction is likely to be limited.
How high can Gold go? Well, the past 3 months (December to February) Gold has been trading in a wide range between 2,134 and 1,973. If we project that range upwards as illustrated by the two vertical lines we get a new range up to around 2,300
If Gold is moving only 0.618 of that December to February trading range we get a price of 2,233 Weekly chart Gold is also in a bullsih trend and is confirmed by RSI positive sentiment.
Using the larger correction Q2-Q3 2023 as a base for a Fibonacci projection, the 1.382 projection is pointing to 2,183 and the projection 1.618 to 2,287
Using the larger correction Q2-Q3 2023 as a base for a Fibonacci projection, the 1.382 projection is pointing to 2,183 and the projection 1.618 to 2,287
Price Target Indicator pointing to 2,400 level
Using the Linton Price Target Indicator (Developed by David Linton, Updata Analytics) which is utilising Point & Figure charting and Fibonacci projections, suggests even higher Gold levels.
This indicator is pointing to price target between 2,346 and 2,393. See chart below – the two rising arrows.
To demolish the current bullish picture a close below 1,984 is necessary
Silver XAGUSD has a short-term confirmed uptrend after closing above 23.50. However, it is facing stiff resistance at the upper part of the Cloud (shaded area) around 24. A close above 24 is needed for continued bullish trend.
However, RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating Silver is likely to move higher with no resistance until around 26 Medium-term - weekly chart - Silver seems to be forming a big Ascending Triangle like pattern (lower trendline is ascending and the upper is horizontal with resistance at around 26.
A bullish break out i.e., a break above 26 could lead to Silver price around USD 30 . Strong support at around 21.90 . A close below will reverse the bullish picture.
Using the same Linton Price Target indicator on Silver it is suggesting a bullish move to USD 26.
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