XAUUSD

Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points in this update:

  • Gold has finally surpassed USD 3,000 per ounce, raising the obvious question: what’s next?
  • Multiple drivers lie behind the rally, some of which are long-lasting, while others may eventually fade.
  • In the short term, traders will be looking for US stagflation signs and Trump tariff tantrums to support additional gains.
  • Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong scare to return to gold—and that’s happening now.

Gold breached USD 3,000 per ounce today for the first time, pushing the price of a standard 400-ounce (12.4 kg) gold bar—held by central banks globally—to USD 1,200,000. This marks a stark rise from USD 110,000 in 1999, when I traded spot bullion for a hedge fund in London. Beyond reinforcing gold’s status as a long-term buy-and-hold asset, this surge reflects growing global instability, which has fueled strong demand for safe havens like bullion and, to some extent, silver.

Now that gold has reached USD 3,000, a period of profit-taking may follow, triggering a pullback to last month’s peak of USD 2,956 or even USD 2,930. However, the broader outlook remains bullish unless global risks ease significantly, thereby hurting momentum forcing speculators to reduce speculative futures positions. In addition to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, fiscal concerns should continue to support gold. Spot gold is up 14% year-to-date, with a one-year gain nearing 39%. While a deeper correction remains a risk, we maintain our recently raised USD 3,300 target.

Spot Gold

Before examining recent drivers, let’s revisit key reasons we highlighted in December for why the 2025 outlook remained strong, despite last year’s 27% gain:

  • Central bank diversification: Increased purchases to reduce reliance on the US dollar and government bonds.
  • Interest rate cuts: Lower rates reduce gold’s opportunity cost versus short-term government bonds.
  • Safe-haven appeal: Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, along with trade war risks, could drive inflation in 2025.
  • Chinese demand: Investors turning to gold amid record-low savings rates and property market uncertainty.
  • Fiscal instability: Rising global debt burdens, particularly in the US, where President-elect Trump’s costly policies—tariffs and tax cuts—exacerbate concerns.

Since January, Trump has upended the world order, while weak economic data, including fading consumer confidence and shifting US tariff policies have unsettled Wall Street and driven the dollar lower. The resulting stock market correction, led by recently high-flying companies now facing a potential end to US exceptionalism, has prompted overseas and US investors to seek alternatives. These factors have heightened stagflation risks—slowing growth, rising unemployment, and increasing inflation—potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions. Markets now anticipate three 25-basis-point cuts by year-end, up from just one in January.

Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong stock market and economic slowdown scare to return to gold—and that’s happening now. Many exited in 2022 when the Fed’s rate hikes made gold’s carrying cost prohibitive, but concerns over stagflation leading to lower funding costs are drawing them back, albeit cautiously. This demand appears broad, with funds rotating out of equities into short-term safe havens like US Treasury bonds and gold.

Total holdings in ETFs backed by bullion
Gold miners have enjoying strong tailwinds from the continued rally in bullion prices. Adding to this a potential rotation out of under-pressure momentum stocks
In today's podcast we look at some small divergences that could spell near term relief on risk sentiment, even if there is a steep hill to climb to significantly reverse this market rise. We also discuss gold trading at $3,000 per ounce and whether silver is set for brisk and large rally higher if it can break above the 35+ dollar per ounce level. Thoughts on crude oil, copper, a great set of links for further reading and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Recent commodity articles:

12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: 
Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: 
COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: 
Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: 
Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: 
Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: 
COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
28 Feb 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Broad weakness as tariff fatigue sets in
24 Feb 2025: 
COT Report: traders turn selective despite ongoing broad rally
21 Feb 2025: 
Commodities weekly: energy market strength and Trump rethoric fuel surge
18 Feb 2025: 
COT report: crude, gold and grains see mild profit taking
5 Feb 2025: 
Broad Strength Drives Commodities sector to 26-month High
4 Feb 2025: 
Crude Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Tariffs and Demand Weighs
3 Feb 2025: 
COT Report: Mixed Week Seen Ahead of Trump's Tariff Offensive
1 Feb 2025: 
YouTube: Joining Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle podcast
31 Jan 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Strong January led by precious metals
29 Jan 2025: 
Agriculture sector rally led by coffee, corn and cattle
27 Jan 2025: 
COT Report: Commodity buying extends to fourth week
24 Jan 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Trump tariff threats and energy agenda in focus
23 Jan 2025: 
Crude oil weakens amid tariff uncertainty
22 Jan 2025: 
Gold and silver see fresh gains as Trump 2.0 era begins
20 Jan 2025: 
COT Report: Elevated commodities longs face short-term risks
17 Jan 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Strong January rally pauses ahead of Trump
15 Jan 2025: 
Q1 2025 Commodity outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
14 Jan 2025: 
COT Report: Hedge fund long jumps to 17-month high led by crude, gas and metals
13 Jan 2025: 
Crude oil rally amid winter demand and Russian sanctions
10 Jan 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Strong start to the year led by energy and metals
7 Jan 2025: 
COT Report: Managed money's year-end positioning in forex and commodities

Podcasts that include commodities focus:

14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out?
10 Mch 2025: 
US un-exceptionalism is the theme
7 Mch 2025: 
US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station
4 March 2025: 
Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?
25 Feb 2025: 
Meltdown risks are rising. What to watch next
18 Feb 2025: 
Europe is on fire
5 Feb 2025: 
Mag 7 risks underappreciated? 
3 Feb 2025: 
If new Trump tariffs stick, markets have only just begun to react
31 Jan 2025: 
Does the market think Trump is bluffing?
29 Jan 2025: 
The DeepSeek winners emerge
27 Jan 2025: 
DeepSeeking missile strikes global markets
24 Jan 2025: 
Four days in, Trump continues to dominate headlines, but ...
20 Jan 2025: 
Trump 2.0 swings into action
17 Jan 2025:
 Brace for Monday, as a new era begins

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.