Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Crude oil is rebounding off lows trying to break bullish out of consolidation area. But the rebound seems to be faltering. Will Crude oil slide back in Consolidation area or get a second wind?
WTI Crude oil was yesterday close to be testing the upper falling trend line but failed and also failed closing above resistance at around 72.65.
If WTI can close above both there is short-term potential to 0.786 retracement at 77.06 and possibly also to the strong resistance at around 79.77.
However, the declining 200 DMA will provide some resistance.
RSI is also still in negative sentiment but if RSI can close above its upper horizontal trendline it would be an indication of WTI to move higher
Brent Crude oil yesterday closed above resistance at around 77.24 almost rebounding to the 0.618 retracement at 79.99. Trend is still down however, and RSI is still in negative sentiment
However, the rebound/correction can still reach the upper falling trendline and the 0.786 retracement at 82.08 where the 200 DMA will provide resistance.
A daily close above the upper falling trend could give further upside energy to 84-85.
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