Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold and Silver took out key supports continuing its corrective sell-off. Both precious metals approaching 0.786 retracement levels. Will they be bouncing or continuing its sell-off?
Platinum seems to be be gaining strength and could re-test key resistance. Will it develop an uptrend?
Gold XAUUSD has broken below support and 0.618 retracement at around 2,009 and seems likely to drop to the 0.786 retracement at 1,975
RSI is still in positive sentiment and did not record divergence at the Gold peak a week ago suggesting uptrend could resume.
If Gold is bouncing from the 0.786 retracement and RSI is bouncing from the 40 threshold (or before) Gold is likely to resume uptrend.
However, a spike down to 1,945-1,930 should not be ruled out. However, both 55, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages are all rising above the Cloud area illustrating underlying bullish sentiment.
A break back above 2,040 uptrend is likely to be resuming
Silver XAGUSD sell-off is currently testing the upper Cloud area (shaded area) and is likely to be testing the 0.786 retracement at 22.75 shortly.
If bouncing off the 0.786 retracement Silver could see a rebound back to the 24 level. And likely resuming uptrend.
Platinum XPTUSD is bouncing back above the falling trendline and is at the time of writing back above the Cloud. If closing above (the Cloud a bullish move to test the strong resistance at around 952.30 could be seen. A close above could fuel a rally to 990-1,000
RSI is showing positive sentiment and if closing back above 60 threshold the bullish picture will be confirmed.
A close back below the falling trendline on Plainum is likely to get sellers back in control. A break below 889 will confirm that with potential down to November lows around 842 to follow
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)