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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Top formations in Gold and Silver. How low will they go? Bottom and reversal indications for Gold/Silver ratio
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
- Double top patterns confirmed for Gold and Silver but downside could be limited
- Bottom and reversal pattern close to being confirmed in the Gold/Silver ratio
Gold XAUUSD was rejected at the minor resistance at around 2,384. That level is the 0.382 retracement of the early May uptrend (red lines).
Gold sold off down below key support at around 2,314, establishing a downtrend (lower lows and lower highs). However, the RSI is still showing positive sentiment and is required to close below the 40 threshold to switch to negative sentiment.
If Gold closes below support at around 2,277 and RSI closes below 40, there is likely further downside for gold.
In case that bearish scenario plays out—where Gold is closing below 2,277—a double top-like pattern has been confirmed.
It is not the most perfect pattern, however, which can degrade the performance potential, suggesting a bearish move is likely to be limited to around the 2,222–2,195 support area.
In that area, the 1.382 projection of the double top at 2,211 lies. The rising 100 daily moving average will add to the support strength in that region. For Gold to resume its bullish trend, a daily close above 2,388 is required
Silver XAGUSD formed a double top-like pattern in May, but with the strong bounce in early June, it seemed like it was cancelling it.
However, with the sellers taking back control the past few days, the double top scenario seems to be playing out. Short-term bearish trend is established, but RSI has not yet confirmed with a close below the 40 threshold.
However, Silver could still very well sell off down to the 0.618 retracement at 28.50, the same level as the 1.382 projection of last week’s bounce (red Fibonacci levels). The rising 55 daily moving average will give some support around that lev
If the strength indicator RSI closes below 40, there is likely further downside potential for Silver to 27.75–27.40.
For Silver to resume uptrend, a daily close above 31.55 is required. That scenario should not be ruled out completely as the RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating a new peak above 32.52 is still in the cards
The Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio seems to be forming an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder bottom and reversal pattern.
A daily close above 79.20 will confirm the reversal pattern and is likely to fuel a rally to at least the 1.382 projection at 81.66 with upside potential to 1.618, or even to the 1.764 projection at 83.20 and 84.15 respectively.
A close below the right shoulder at 75.60 will demolish the pattern and XAUXAG will resume its downtrend.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment but also divergence, suggesting the downtrend has exhausted and Gold/Silver is likely to rebound higher.
An RSI close above 60 will further confirm a bullish move for the ratio
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