Investing with options: Adyen - post Investor Day

Options 10 minutes to read
Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Summary:  Adyen NV's Investor Day has sparked a flurry of optimistic trading, with its shares climbing 30%. As the company projects solid growth until 2026, traders are engaging with a series of strategic options trades. Highlighted strategies include a long call, showcasing bullish sentiment; a short iron condor, indicating a neutral stance with a substantial yield over its lifetime; and a short call vertical spread, suitable for yield optimization on existing positions. These scenarios reflect the market's adaptability to Adyen's promising yet adjusted financial targets.


Adyen's Investor Day Drives Positive Market Moves

Post-Investor Day, Adyen's shares have experienced a notable 30% rise. The company's revised outlook indicates robust annual revenue growth till 2026, despite a slight dip in EBITDA margin goals. Key points from the day included Adyen's ongoing global expansion, a simplified payment process for major clients, and a conservative hiring outlook for the latter half of 2023. With solid volume growth and sustainable valuation levels, Adyen has become a focal point for traders deploying various optimistic strategies in response to its promising financial trajectory.

The ensuing sections will delve into three distinct options trading strategies that have emerged in the market following Adyen's announcements. These strategies include a long call, a short iron condor, and a short call vertical spread, each providing a unique approach to market conditions and reflecting traders' varying degrees of risk tolerance and market outlook.

Important note: the strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions. 

An important characteristic to note about Adyen's options is that each contract represents only 10 shares, as opposed to the standard 100 shares typical in options contracts. This distinction is particularly significant due to the high nominal value of Adyen's shares. The smaller contract size offers greater flexibility and potentially lower capital requirements for individual investors, making it a noteworthy point for those considering options strategies with Adyen.
 

Bullish outlook

Long call on Adyen NV (ADYEN:xams)

  • Underlying stock: ADYEN:xams, last traded at 958.80 EUR
  • Options details:
    • Buy to Open 1x 800 Call, 20-Dec-2024, Bid/Ask: -, Delta: 0.7538
  • Trade setup:
    • Type: Limit, quantity: 1, price (debit): 2788.00 EUR, duration: Day Order
  • Financials:
    • Premium (debit): 2788.00 EUR
    • Margin impact: 0.00 EUR
    • Max risk: -2788.00 EUR
    • Max profit: Infinity
    • Breakeven: 1078.80 EUR

  • The trade involves purchasing a long call option with a strike price of 800 EUR on Adyen NV. With no immediate margin impact, the trade carries a maximum risk equal to the premium paid and offers unlimited profit potential above the breakeven point of 1078.80 EUR, signifying a bullish market expectation. The significant delta indicates a strong belief in the underlying stock's upward movement before the expiry in December 2024.
     

Short iron condor on Adyen NV (ADYEN:xams)

  • Underlying stock: ADYEN:xams, last traded at 958.80 EUR
  • Options details:
    • Sell to Open 1x 1400 Call, 20-Dec-2024, Bid/Ask: -, Delta: -0.2815
    • Sell to Open 1x 600 Put, 20-Dec-2024, Bid/Ask: 32.90, Delta: -0.1152
  • Trade setup:
    • Type: Limit, quantity: 1, price (credit): 95.40 EUR, duration: Day Order
  • Financials:
    • Premium (credit): 954.00 EUR
    • Margin impact: 667.69 EUR
    • Max risk: Infinity
    • Max profit: 954.00 EUR
    • Breakevens: 504.60 EUR and 1495.40 EUR

  • This strategy involves selling a 1400 strike call and a 600 strike put, both expiring in December 2024. The trader receives a net credit of 954.00 EUR with breakeven points at 504.60 EUR and 1495.40 EUR. This position indicates a neutral market stance with defined profit and potentially unlimited risk if the stock moves beyond the breakeven points. The significant deltas reflect the strategy's responsiveness to stock price movements in either direction.
  • Possible outcome scenarios:
    • Profitable range scenario with yield: If Adyen’s stock price remains between 600 and 1400 EUR at expiration, the trader retains the 954 EUR premium. Given the margin impact of 667.69 EUR, the yield over the trade's lifetime (until December 2024) would be approximately 143% [(954 / 667.69) * 100], assuming the margin requirement is the capital put at risk.
    • Above 1400 EUR scenario without existing stock: Should the stock rise above 1400 EUR, the call sold is in-the-money and the trader may face losses, which increase the further the stock rises.
    • Above 1400 EUR scenario with existing stock: If the stock price exceeds 1400 EUR and the trader holds Adyen shares, they may be obligated to sell at this price due to the exercised call. This scenario would not generate a loss but cap the profit on the owned shares. Effectively, this strategy serves as a yield enhancement on an existing stock position, by collecting premiums while setting a potential future sale price.
    • Below 600 EUR scenario: If the stock falls below 600 EUR, the put sold is in-the-money and the trader may have to buy the stock at 600 EUR, incurring losses, especially if the stock continues to drop.
    • In all these scenarios, it's important to remember that the contract size of 10 shares will affect the total profitability and risk, with lower capital requirements and potentially lower profits or losses in absolute terms compared to the standard 100-share contracts. The trader would need to adjust their strategies accordingly, keeping in mind Adyen's high share price and the specific terms of their options contracts.

Short call vertical spread on Adyen NV (ADYEN:xams)

  • Underlying stock: ADYEN:xams, last traded at 958.80 EUR
  • Options details:
    • Buy to Open 1x 1200 Call, 20-Dec-2024, Bid/Ask: -, Delta: 0.4165
    • Sell to Open 1x 1000 Call, 20-Dec-2024, Bid/Ask: -, Delta: -0.5835
  • Trade setup:
    • Type: Limit, quantity: 1, price (credit): 70.65 EUR, duration: Day Order
  • Financials:
    • Premium (credit): 706.50 EUR
    • Margin impact: 218.12 EUR
    • Max risk: -1,293.50 EUR
    • Max profit: 706.50 EUR
    • Breakeven: 1,070.65 EUR

  • The trade exhibits a short call vertical spread where a 1200 strike call is bought and a 1000 strike call is sold, both for December 2024. The trader enters the position for a credit of 706.50 EUR and assumes a maximum risk of -1,293.50 EUR, with a breakeven stock price of 1,070.65 EUR. This strategy suggests a neutral to bearish outlook, limiting upside exposure while providing a premium income.

Conclusion: Market Strategies Reflect Adyen's Growth Prospects

Adyen's revised growth strategy and the market's subsequent rally have given rise to diverse trading strategies that mirror the varied investor sentiment and expectations. From bullish over neutral to bearish, these strategies demonstrate the adaptability of market participants to the evolving financial landscape shaped by Adyen's ambitions. As the company steers through the intricate dynamics of global payments, maintaining solid growth, traders and investors align their portfolios to leverage Adyen's potential for sustained growth and scalability. The options strategies discussed offer insights into the tactical maneuvers employed in the marketplace, highlighting a keen balance between risk management and the pursuit of opportunities presented by Adyen's trajectory.


Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.