Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: A Golden Milestone
Saxo
Less noise from the Oval Office this week but the tariff tit-for-tat continues. Volatility is the outcome sparking investor nerves but also presenting market opportunities. Gold is the haven winner reaching $3,000. Similar to last week, Nasdaq futures saw heavy trading on the Saxo platform as the underlying index remains under pressure (-10% ytd). This week Novo Nordisk topped the list for the most trading clients with a strong skew to the buy side at lows not seen since 2023. US inflation numbers were soft, while positive for rate cuts it is a fear for growth. More below on this week’s key stories.
Breaking $3,000
Gold reaches record $3,000 per ounce as investors flock into havens on potential growth impact of tariffs. Gold bullion-backed ETF holdings rose to about 2,687 tons which is most since Nov 2023.
Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
Wall Street’s “Fear Guage”
At the time of writing, VIX is at 24 and has a 1-week average of 25.96, this versus the long-term average of around 19.5. Fuelled by trade wars and market uncertainty, volatility can provide short-term fear while long-term investors should remain focused.
Volatility Explained
How to stay on track in a volatile market
EUR strength continues
Last week’s fiscal U-turn initiated the rally in Euro, and news flow continues to reinforce that rhetoric. The fundamentals indicate support could push EURUSD to a multi-year range of 1.12+, but for now the rally takes a breath.
Where does EURUSD find support?
Roche/Zealand pact
Zealand Pharma’s pact with Roche to co-develop and co-commercialise the Danish company’s experimental obesity drug Petrelintide adds another big player to the weight loss drug market. Shares in Novo Nordisk fell - 4.3% on the news to close at a 52-week low.
Roche boosts drug pipeline
Next week will again be led by political and geopolitical developments. We should have clarity over the next US spending bill while tariff spats and talks over a ceasefire in Ukraine continue. The economic calendar brings US Feb Retail Sales on Monday. Bank of Japan rate decision, EU Feb CPI and then US FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. Swiss and Bank of England rate decisions will be announced on Thursday. Scheduled earnings include several prominent Chinese companies XPeng, Tencent Music (Tues), PDD Holdings (Thurs), Nio Inc (Fri). In the US we highlight Nike, Micron, Fedex, which are all due out Thursday.
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