Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Technical Update - Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and ASML. Strong uptrends but seems to be correction time
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Semiconductors and semiconductor related stocks have been in a strong uptrend lately but now a correction seems to be looming
The trends in Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and AMSL seem strong however, both on short- and medium-term indicating Semi's to end the year on a strong note
The technical picture is sending mixed signals in Nvidia.
Nvidia Opened almost unchanged after Earnings announcement last night.
The share price closed at an all-time high 20th November confirming its bullish trend.
RSI, which is showing positive sentiment underlining the bullish trend, is also flagging Divergence i.e., indicating weakness of the trend.
However, if Nvidia is performing a higher close the RSI divergence is likely to be cancelled. If that scenario plays out there could be potential to the 530-560 towards year end.
A close below 482 is likely to initiate a correction down to around 450.
Medium-term trend is up (weekly chart). There is massive RSI divergence though that could put a damper on the upside potential.
Adding to that is that the volume has been declining the past 4 weeks i.e., less and less buyers are pushing the share price higher. Volume should rise with higher prices.
However, RSI is still above 60 i.e., positive sentiment and the MACD line is close to break back above the Signals line, if that scenario plays out it would be a bullish signal.
To reverse the current medium-term bullish trend a close below 392 is needed Advanced Micro Devices AMD short-term bullish trend seems to be stalling. There I Divergence on RSI indicating a correction could be looming.
A correction that could take AMD down to around 115-112. Support at around 111.64.
However, the medium-term picture is still bullish with no RSI divergence on the weekly chart supporting a bullish outlook for AMD.
Intel INTC has gone almost vertical lately. But there is no RSI divergence on daily suggesting INTC can move higher.
However, a short-term correction should be expected. However, the correction is not expected to be major, probably not even down to the 0.382 retracement at 40.
Strong support at around 38.86 that should not be broken. If it does the bullish picture is demolished. A close below 37.75 will reverse the trend
Medium-term INTC ahs is being rejected at the 200 weekly Moving Average and resistance at around 44.93.
However, RSI and traded volume is supporting higher INTC share prices after a correction.
A close above 44.93 could fuel another rally towards strong resistance at around 51.83
Taiwan Semiconductor TSM (ADR) has reached 1.618 projection of the Double bottom pattern at 100.82 followed by a top and reversal pattern ( Doji evening but not textbook perfect - circled) that could initiate a correction.
The current minor setback is testing the minor support area at around 98-97.44. A close below 97.44 could fuel a correction down to 94-93. There is some support at the Double bottom peak at 94.78.
If closing below 92.65 further selling should be expected.
Medium-term TSM is in a bullish trend but seems to be struggling for momentum. RSI is showing positive sentiment (has not closed below 40 after closing above 60 means that it is still in positive sentiment) but has failed to close back above the 60 threshold last week.
An RSI close above 60 threshold on the weekly will support the bullish outlook. Volume the past 3-4 weeks have been rising
Strong resistance at around 105-110
ASML is trending higher after breaking the falling trend channel from July through October.
RSI is showing positive sentiment supporting the bullish trend but ASML seems to be hitting the 0.618 retracement at around 635.57 and a short-term, correction is in the cards.
A daily close above 636.50 is likely to push ASML higher towards resistance at around 652.80 and 688.
A close below 600 is likely to demolish the bullish picture
Medium-term the bullish trend has resumed but weekly RSI is struggling to get back above 60 threshold. A close above with further support higher ASML levels Latest Market Insights
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