Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - WTI crude oil testing key resistance. Brent lagging. Henry Hub and Dutch gas finding buyers, could bounce
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
WTI Crude oil yesterday closed just below January peak at 79.29 and today is testing the key resistance at around 79.77. A close above is likely to push the oil future to the 1.382 projection and resistance at around 82.56.
Higher lows, as illustrated by the lower rising trendline, and the RSI is showing positive sentiment are supporting the bullish.
However, WTI has failed to push higher from around current levels quite a few times and it could also be a struggle this time around.
WTI could see a setback down to around 77.50-76.25 before having another go at the resistance level.
A break below 75.54 the lower rising trendline is likely to be tested.
Brent Crude oil is lagging the WTI apparently running out of steam below its key strong resistance at around 84.75.
Despite RSI showing positive sentiment the 100 Daily Moving Average is declining whereas the other Moving Averages are rising is a sign of underlying trend conflict.
Brent could see a tug of war between Bulls and Bears between the lower rising trendline and the USD 84 level for quit some time.
A break above 84.75 could however, see a swift bullish move to the 87.35-87.92 level.
A break below 80.72 the lower rising trendline is likely to be tested but a bearish move to 78-77 level could be seen
Despite RSI showing positive sentiment the 100 Daily Moving Average is declining whereas the other Moving Averages are rising is a sign of underlying trend conflict.
Brent could see a tug of war between Bulls and Bears between the lower rising trendline and the USD 84 level for quit some time.
A break above 84.75 could however, see a swift bullish move to the 87.35-87.92 level.
A break below 80.72 the lower rising trendline is likely to be tested but a bearish move to 78-77 level could be seen
Dutch TTF Gas is close to be testing the May 2023 trough at around 22.85. A rebound could be seen from here. However, with no divergence on th4e RSI indicator Dutch gas can trade lower.
If Dutch Gas is seeing a rebound it is likely to be minor with resistance at around 26.50
Henry Hub Natural Gas seems to be finding bids just above 2020 trough at around 1.434. If today Tuesday 20th February is closing above 1.611 a bullish Engulfing like candle has been drawn indicant a bottom and reversal
That could indicate a short rebound to 0.618 retracement of the last leg down at 1.88 possibly up to the 1.97 level
The trend is and would still be down however, and will remain so on the short-term until a close above 2.17
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