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Latest news from #SaxoStrats
WCU: Energy crisis fuels commodity rally despite growth concerns
The month-long run-up in commodity prices shows no sign of easing with the main engine continuing to be the global energy crisis and its direct impact on other sectors, not least the energy-intensive industrial metal sector. Shortages of fuel leading to record-high prices has forced reductions in metal production from China to Europe, thereby exacerbating price gains for several key metals, not least copper after the LME came close to running out of deliverable stocks. Gold and silver also pushing higher as surging breakeven yields keep real yields suppressed.
FX Update: How will FX react to the realization that stagflation has arrived?
It is easy for commodity currencies to advance strongly when only the inflationary component of stagflation is in play, but what happens across FX if risk sentiment starts to consider the outlook for sharply weaker growth, especially if yields rise further? Key tests lie ahead on that account for the most yield-sensitive currency the Japanese yen, as well as classically pro-cyclical commodity currencies.
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